Fed likely won’t raise rates this month
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Investors are increasingly hopeful that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady this month after hiking them in July to their highest level in 22 years. Unless inflation slows further, additional rate increases are still possible, and the Fed has not ruled them out.

The CME FedWatch tool predicts that Federal Reserve officials will vote for a pause at their policy meeting on September 19-20, but investors’ bets on another pause in November are lower, at around 60%.

Whether the central bank will hike interest rates again this year is difficult to predict. The most likely scenario is that the November meeting will bring an end to rate hikes or one more increase will be made.

If both the job market and the broader economy continue to slow, the Fed could keep rates steady for the rest of the year. American consumers may spend less next month due to the resumption of student loan payments, or banks may continue to tighten lending standards.

Leslie Thompson, chief investment officer at Spectrum Wealth Management, told in an interview that the numbers may indicate inflation is moderating, so the Fed will keep rates on hold for the rest of the year. Keeping interest rates higher for longer means extending the period when they are elevated.

Thompson believes weak quarterly earnings won’t frighten Wall Street as much as persistent inflationary pressure. There is a possibility that the Fed will raise rates again as a result.

Ahead of the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium last month in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that additional hikes could occur if inflation exceeds expectations.

The Fed may be trying to ease off the gas pedal in September, before shifting to the next phase of holding rates steady in November, by pausing in September, but hiking in November. As the Fed’s inflation fight slowed, Powell likened it to a car driving more and more slowly as it approaches its destination.

The Fed still needs to hike more, according to some officials.

A day before Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, Boston Fed President Susan Collins told Yahoo! Finance: “We may need additional increments, and we may be very close to a place where we can hold.”